Fantasy Baseball Think Tank

1. Albert Pujols – Top 5 overall in any format! Expect nothing less than his 3 year average: .338/.440/.624, 106/39/119. Prince Albert is a workhorse and has proven he will play through anything.
2. Miguel Cabrera – What’s not to like about MCab? The only thing I can think of is his weight. If he can pick up where he left off in the second half we could see a major breakout on ’09. I’m looking (and hoping) for .300/110/40/135
3. Mark Teixeira – We’re going to see a monster year from Tex at Fenway or the new Yankee Stadium. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him return to his to ’05 form of .300/110/40/140 in a potent Yankee or Red Sox lineup.
4. Ryan Howard – Best pure power in the game. If you need HR/RBI and plan on drafting both batting champs, you can reach for Howard in the late first/early second rounds. 100/45/140 are a given but unfortunately a sub .270 AVG is equally as likely.
5. Prince Fielder – Now that Fielder has become accustomed to his Wiccan diet I hope he will return to the astronomical trajectory he launched in 2007. I expect 90/35/110 but wouldn’t be shocked by 100/45/130/.290. In case this is news, he isn’t very speedy.
6. Adrian Gonzalez – The former first pick has been earning his keep. Too bad he’s confined to Petco, the worst hitters park in the bigs. I think .300/100/35/120/5 is the lower end of what he is capable of.
7. Justin Morneau – He always seems to be a part of the MVP conversation but his fantasy numbers are never astounding. Reliability? Yes. Upside? I don’t think so. We’ve come to expect just under 100 runs, around 30 HR, 120 RBI, and a consistent .300 AVG. Count on it. If you’ve taken on some risk with your first couple picks and he falls to you in the late third/early fourth round, scoop him without thinking twice.
8. Lance Berkman – Over the past 8 years, Big Puma has averaged 101/33/110/.300+. He probabaly do the same again in ’09. The only thing he has working against him is his age, which we may have seen signs of during the second half. After hitting .347 with 22 HR’s in the first half, he batted a mere .259 with only 7 HR’s after the break. Has Big Puma become the Little Kitten. I think I’ll let someone else find out.
9. Kevin Youkilis – He’s proven to be a serviceable CI but my guess is that ’08 was an outlier and don’t expect him to put up MVP type numbers any time soon. Once the first eight are off the board see if you can wait a few rounds on Youk and be happy you filled other needs early.
10. Chris Davis – In the interest of full disclosure, Chris is my brother. I’m looking for C-Bone to go .270/85/35/110/8 and then buy me a house.
11. Joey Votto – Second in NL ROY voting, Votto is a popular breakout candidate to go 100/30/100 and I think that’s well within reach. If he’s available around pick 100 I’ll snatch him up.
12. Carlos Delgado – Over the past 11 seasons Delgado has averaged 36/114. His best years are behind him to be sure but as he proved in ’08, he’s still got plenty left in the tank. If you need some cheap power and little else, Delgado is your man.
13. Derrek Lee – I don’t have much faith in Lee after what he’s shown over the past several years. He’s only gone over 100 R, 35HR and 100 RBI once…and all in the same fluke year. I’d rather gamble on the upside of Votto or Davis at than pin my hopes on Lee. In fact I’d go so far as to say that Lee will make an appearance on Fantasy Baseball Think Tank’s inaugural “10 Most Overrated List”…coming soon.
14. Garret Atkins – A move away from friendly Coors will hurt Atkins’ value considerably. I’m not high on him to begin with but you could do worse than to target him as a mid/late round CI.
15. Richie Sexson – Just kidding.
16. Carlos Pena – Pena is a headache to own and someone I’ll avoid in all drafts. There is of course the chance that he’ll put up 40/120 in the potent Rays lineup so the upside is there. It’s the high price tag and likelihood of a .250 batting average that will keep me away in ’09.

1. David Wright - His average dropped a bit, as did his stolen base total, but he logged career highs in runs, home runs and RBIs. He has refined his game over each of the past three seasons, and still has room for improvement. His line after the break? .330/.416/.577, with remarkable consistency from July 1 forward. Expect much more of that in 2009. You heard it here first - no longer the second best 3B in NYC.
2. Alex Rodriguez - A quadriceps injury kept him out for a month or so, but he still compiled impressive numbers in all five categories. A-Rod will turn 34 next year, and you can likely count on 35+ home runs with 15+ stolen bases and a .300 average. Still a top 10 player overall, but at this point I am inclined to favor Wright’s upside.
3. Evan Longoria - The playoffs confirmed that Longoria’s power returned after a fractured wrist, which bodes well for 2009 (I’m looking at you, Derrek Lee). Will he follow Braun’s lead with an encore performance, or succumb to a bit of a sophomore slump? Regardless, he’s the one I want after Wright and A-Rod.
4. Aramis Ramirez - The power numbers are undoubtedly slipping from a very fine ‘04-’06 peak. Batting in a strong Chicago lineup, he still has the potential to put up excellent numbers. A relatively safe bet at a tough position to fill, as the rest of the guys on this list have question marks of one kind or another…
5. Kevin Youkilis - A consistent season with a strong finish suggests that Youkilis might well be able to stage a repeat campaign. I have my doubts, but given the lack of depth at this position I have no choice but to bump him up into the top 5.
6. Ryan Zimmerman - Quietly had a nice finish to a disappointing season, with five home runs and a .290/.347/.516 line in September. Only 24, he is younger than Alex Gordon with three years of MLB experience already under his belt. The breakout campaign is coming, and you want him on your roster when that happens.
7. Edwin Encarnacion - Edwin has impressive power, though his struggles against righties held him back from a bona fide breakout campaign in 2008. His previous stats suggest that this might have been a bit of an anomoly. Encarnacion will turn 26 in January, and he hits in a bandbox. If he can get back on track against righties, don’t be surprised if he sails past the 30 home run mark with relative ease.
8. Chipper Jones - On his way to a seemingly historic season, injuries once again derailed Chipper’s momentum. Remarkably productive when in the lineup, he has only topped 500 at-bats once in the past five seasons (and barely, I might add). How much risk can you tolerate on your roster? The potential will surely tempt you, but he will be 37 at the start of the 2009 season. I recommend letting someone else take a chance on Chipper.
9. Adrian Beltre - One of the most frustrating players to roster in fantasy, as a multi-homer game might be followed up with weeks of absolute futility at the plate. Nevertheless, he is a near lock for 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases at the end of the year. You could do worse.
10. Jorge Cantu - After a mostly lost 2006 and 2007, many (myself included) had written off Cantu. Not so fast. He will turn the allegedly magic age of 27 this year, and is absolutely capable of repeating his 2008 campaign (92-29-95-6-.277). You would take that from your 3B, wouldn’t you?
11. Chris Davis - A number of folks are expecting big things from Chris Davis in 2009. He had a blistering July after getting the call from Oklahoma, though struggled mightily in August. The power is undeniable, though the strikeout rate (88 in 295 at-bats) is a bit of a red flag. My advice? Temper expectations for this sophomore campaign.
12. Chone Figgins - Injuries limited Figgins for the second year in a row. Given that so much of his value is tied up in speed, I wouldn’t reach for him.
13. Alex Gordon - Much like Zimmerman, Gordon arrived with top prospect billing and has largely disappointed thus far. Although the sample size is much too small to draw any conclusions, he did finish strong after returning from a quad injury in September. If he falls far enough in your draft, don’t hesitate to take a chance on the young lad. He turns 25 in February.
14. Aubrey Huff - Huff is better than you think, just not quite as good as he looked in 2008. For the season ahead, expect 25 home runs and a .285 average.
15. Garrett Atkins - Herculean at Coors Field in 2008 (.342/.380/.523), it is difficult to fathom just how feeble Atkins was away from home (.233/.278/.383). His 2007 splits tell a very familiar story. With Holliday now in Oakland, the Rockies seem less likely to trade Atkins, or do they? If he stays, his slash stats will likely even out to his career norms: .280/.360/.474. But the possibility still exists that he will be shipped off to some low elevation locale, rendering him utterly mortal and dropping him off this list altogether. I’ll let someone else take that chance, thank you very much.

1. Jose Reyes – You cant go wrong taking Hanley or Reyes with the first pick. They are clearly the two best at the position and perhaps the two most valuable players at any position heading into 2009. If both remain healthy, which they’ve proven they can, I like Reyes’ chances for 20 hr, with higher RBI/R totals as a result, better than I like Hanley’s chances at 40-50 swipes.
2. Hanley Ramirez – He’s a monster and I wouldn’t fault you for taking him ahead of Reyes.
3. Jimmy Rollins – Will he ever be an MVP again? Not a chance. Should he have been in ‘07? Debatable. Is he the clear favorite for third best SS? Without question. Should you burn a first round pick on him? I wouldn’t. Should you spend a late second round pick? Like it’s the first of the month. I expect a bounce back year but suggest you temper any trophy winning expectations in ‘09. Commissioner’s trophy included.
4. Stephen Drew – Now comes the hard part. I have Drew this high because I like his upside, although that only slightly outweighs my desire to push him down the list because I hate his brother. Look for another solid season and a chance at 25/10. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s drafted higher than Rollins in ‘10.
5. Troy Tulowitzki – I don’t know. What do you guys think of him? Was ‘08 an anomaly or was it ‘07? I’m guessing it was ‘08 and that he’ll put on a show in ‘09. I wouldn’t be afraid to burn a 6th or 7th round pick on him, especially in keeper leagues.
6. JJ Hardy – If Hardy would just show some consistency throughout the year I’d be happy to predict .280/90/25/90/5. Pretty nice numbers from a mid-round SS that aren’t out of the question and aren’t without precedent. I just worry that one of those nasty slumps could last all summer.
7. Derek Jeter – Too old. Too rich. A Yankee.
8. Mike Aviles – I can’t justify ranking Aviles any higher than this, but he’s the only one left with a decent chance at the top four this time next year. I just like this kid. I think .300/95/20/75/15 are well within reach. I’ll be targeting him on draft day after the first 7 or 8 shortstops are off the board….or will I?
9. Michael Young – He has over 625 AB for the past six years running, only once hit under .300 and only twice had fewer than 100 runs. In that nasty Texas lineup under the nasty Texas sun you can still expect this 32 year old to give you what you came for. It just won’t come with 25 homers. Expect .300/100/15/85/10.
10. Jhonny Peralta – This guy quietly keeps improving but I think .280/100/25/90 is his ceiling. My hunch is we wont even see that in ‘09.
11. Rafael Furcal – Rafael, you’d be in the top five if you didn’t have the back of a 57-year-old woman. Instead you’ll go in the middle rounds and even then I won’t take you. Not on any team, not ever.
12. Ryan Theriot – I’ll take a .300 average along with 90 runs and 25 steals from the thinnest position in baseball when they’re next to free. Your league counts OBP? Yes please.
13. Miguel Tejada – (See Jeter) + Juice abuse = What are you still doing here? I expect a repeat of ‘08, nothing more nothing less.
14. Yunel Escobar – Never heard of him.
15. Edgar Rentaria – His counting stats have declined each of the last three years and the Tigers were quoted last week saying, “Give us back Gorkys Hernandez”. Renteria’s stats are too dependent on where he plays to give a projection but if you end up with him at MI you could be doing worse.

Which position is leaner on fantasy talent for 2009, 2B or SS? We will start with an early look at both positions, along with all the rest, and follow up with updated rankings in the spring. First up, second base:

1. Ian Kinsler - A true five category stud. This is the season Kinsler stays healthy start to finish, reaching career highs in HR and SB. He was already my top choice at 2B, but given Utley’s need for hip surgery, Kinsler will likely emerge as the consensus top pick. Expect production in the neighborhood of 115/24/80/30/.296, with room for upside.
2. Chase Utley - A reliably powerful bat at a thin position. He hit a career high 33 home runs in 2008, though 18 of those were logged over the course of a torrid April and May. Over the final four months, he only managed to hit another 15 long balls. Was an injured hip sapping his power? Time will tell, as Utley is now scheduled to go under the knife. His draft value will become clear as the spring approaches. For the time being, I am willing to keep him at the #2 position.
3. Brandon Phillips - A bit of a down year in 2008, though he still held significant value. Look for him to rebound,  as he will be hitting in the midst of a young yet potentially very strong Reds lineup.
4. Dustin Pedroia - While the AL MVP had a great 2008 season, and will continue to put up solid numbers in Beantown, the power numbers were a bit of a fluke. A .374/.425/.635 line in August - a month in which he hit over 1/3 of his home runs - looks to be a significant outlier. In other words, keep your expectations in check. Nevertheless, the batting average is for real and he has legitimate top 5 value.
5. Brian Roberts - Chalk him up for 95 runs and 35+ stolen bases, with an average just a bit south of .300. Solid.
6. Alexei Ramirez - The Cuban Missile flew under the radar for much of last year, but by season’s end had earned his keep on many a fantasy roster. He has absolutely zero OBP skills, but the rest of the package is for real.
7. Robinson Cano - Much like his ballclub, 2008 was a year to forget. He is notoriously better in the second half - his career numbers being .280/.314/.416 before the break and .327/.358/.526 after. Not a top 5 player at the position, but a fine candidate to target in a mid-season trade.
8. Dan Uggla - There is something about Uggla that has always felt rather tenuous, as if his fantasy value could evaporate just as quickly as it precipitated. Needless to say, the second half of 2008 did not do much to dispel those fears. A dismal showing in the All-Star game (three errors, three Ks, and a GIDP) was followed up with a second half power outage and a .226 average. A sign of things to come, or will Uggla return to form in 2009? Either way, not much in the way of upside here - and the worst case scenario is not an attractive one.
9. Kelly Johnson - After a bit of a down season, Johnson ended 2008 on a strong note. I anticipate a breakout in 2009, with a moderate surge in power numbers.
10. Mike Aviles - Kansas City’s official Player of the Year in 2008. Not sure how much leverage that has in the way of bragging rights, but suffice it to say that Aviles is very much for real. The batting average is likely to drop a bit, but otherwise, expect more of the same.
11. Jose Lopez - Quietly put together a very solid season playing for a wretched Mariners team. Unfortunately for Lopez, he will likely do the same on both counts in 2009.
12. Ian Stewart - What to make of Ian Stewart? After a very solid July and August, he completely collapsed in the month of September (.139/.184/.250 over 72 AB). Nevertheless, he hit 29 home runs in just over 500 at bats between Colorado Springs and Denver. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he simply ran out of steam. Provided he qualifies at 2B in your league, and continues to play half of his games at Coors Field, an excellent sleeper in 2009.
13. Howie Kendrick - Is this as good as he gets? Probably not, though Kendrick has been a bit of a disappointment to date. Still young enough to improve, he has batting title pedigree but needs to stay healthy and produce over the course of a full season to have value.
14. Rickie Weeks - Another perennial disappointment. Forced to split time with Ray Durham, he did put up better numbers in September, but his season ended with a knee injury in game 3 against Philadelphia. A brilliant power-speed combo allegedly lurks within, but he may never fulfill that lofty potential. There is still upside here, but you know better than to reach.
15. Aaron Hill - A concussion prematurely ended his 2008 season, so we still don’t know if the 17 home runs in 2007 were a bit of a fluke. Hill should return and post decent numbers with the Jays, but it’s probably best to temper expectations. Take your pick between Hill and Orlando Hudson at this spot.